Pension reform: who are not lucky

The government has announced an increase in the retirement age in Russia: it will grow by 5 years for men (up to 65 years) and by 8 years for women (up to 63 years).
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This was announced on the eve, June 14, at a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers.
"The situation today is that the proportion of working people is getting smaller, pensioners, respectively, more and more. And every year this imbalance will only grow and, therefore, the burden on those who work. All this, if not to make decisions, can lead to the imbalance of the pension system, "- leads" Kommersant "the words of the head of government Dmitry Medvedev. The Prime Minister also noted that if the retirement age is not raised, the state will not be able to fulfill its social obligations.
According to Medvedev, the pension reform will be gradual: the transition period for men will last from 2019 to 2028, for women from 2019 to 2034. The first participants in the reform will be men born in 1959 and women born in 1964 - they will receive the right to retire in 2020 at 61 and 56 years.
However, not without exceptions.So, two years earlier than this border will be able to leave citizens who have a great length of service (40 years for women and 45 years for men). In addition, the right to early retirement will be maintained by those working in hazardous and hazardous working conditions and those to whom early retirement pensions are granted for social reasons and health reasons: for example, women who have given birth to five or more children, to one parent of children with disabilities and others. The changes will not affect those who suffered as a result of radiation and man-made disasters, including as a result of the Chernobyl disaster.
The retirement age will be increased for preferential categories of citizens. In particular, pedagogical, medical and creative workers, who have special work experience (from 15 to 30 years), will now go on early retirement pension eight years later (now an average of 50 years). The inhabitants of the Far North will retire later on 5 (men) and 8 years (women) - in 60 and 58 years.
The project also proposes to increase the rate of increase of the retirement age for civil servants from January 1, 2020, 1 year each. The dates for social retirement will also change - it will now be awarded not at 60 and 65 years (for women and men), but at 68 and 70 years, respectively.
Government members claim that the need to raise the retirement age is due to an increase in life expectancy. Dmitry Medvedev recalled that the current retirement age was approved for some categories as early as the 30s of the 20th century, and finally approved in the early 1960s. During this time, he noted, life expectancy in the country increased by 30 years. In addition, living conditions and working conditions have changed.
The Cabinet of Ministers states that the main goal of the reform is to increase pensions: such a decision will allow raising pensions by 1,000 rubles each year (in the last three years, on average, pensions have increased by 400-500 rubles a year). Due to this measure until 2030, the standard of living of pensioners will increase by one third.
As a compensation measure, the government proposed to fix on an indefinite period the rate of insurance premiums for compulsory pension insurance (TIP) in the amount of 22% with the maximum amount of the base for taxation and 10% above the limit. Now the constant tariff is 26%.
Experts have not yet taken to assess the effectiveness of the measures proposed by the government, but already now 92% of Russians, according to the Romir holding, express their dissatisfaction with the need to raise the retirement age.According to the survey, 58% believe that it is necessary to leave it as it is, about a third of the respondents - that it should be reduced.
Representatives of the Duma opposition have already told reporters that they will not support the government bill on raising the retirement age. Thus, the Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov said that Russia is not ready for such a decision "according to economic parameters": "For this, you need to have a budget of 25 trillion rubles, you must have quite high growth rates, you don’t have to invest in Western banks." He also noted that such a measure "sharply worsens the social well-being of citizens": "In fact, there will be no grandmothers left who can sit with their grandchildren."
A colleague of Zyuganov on the Duma faction of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Oleg Smolin said that the party considers it necessary to hold a referendum on raising the retirement age. He noted that the necessary consultations with lawyers had already been held and the question to be submitted to a referendum might sound like this: “Do you agree that in Russia the age giving the right to assign an old-age insurance pension should not increase until 2030? ".
In addition to these two statements, the Communists are also preparing for an active protest: the deputy chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, Vladimir Kashin,that he is filing an application to hold on July 28 an all-Russian protest action against raising the retirement age.
Alexander Scherbakov, doctor of economics, professor at the Department of Labor and Social Policy at the Institute of Public Administration and Management of the RANEPA, evaluates the government’s initiative: “In the pension reform assessments there is no very important element in raising pension payments. I mean not the nominal content, but the real thing that can be bought for pension payments. In this connection, it’s not about the amount of pension payments, but about how much the purchasing power of a pension rises. If there is no increase in labor productivity in the country properly, the purchasing power will not grow, moreover, it will decline. <...> While the necessary growth is not observed. In this regard, pension payments, however, like other incomes, will be nominal and will not to provide for the real needs of income recipients, in particular, pensioners. <...> This is precisely what needs to be puzzled, and not the formal value of the increase in pension payments. "
Senior Researcher, Regional Finance and Fiscal Policy Sector, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Ufa Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences,Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Olga Kantor reacted critically to the reform voiced by Medvedev: “I consider the proposed transition quite sharp for our country. There are aspects that make me skeptical about innovations. First, the risk of unemployment increases with increasing retirement age Today, finding a good job in a specialty is problematic, after the reform it will be even harder to do. <...> A man at 65 can still be thought of as working, but a woman is not, especially in manufacturing. social aspects also emerge. <...>
Of course, the economy needs to heal. Pension reform will partially help fill the Pension Fund, but in any case will not be successful for the overall recovery of the economy. "
Professor Oleg Sukharev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is convinced that the problem with the predicted labor shortage should not be solved by raising the retirement age, but by actively introducing the technologies: not a single objection was considered, while other opinions were. <...>
The following arguments were made in favor of raising the retirement age. Firstly, in developed countries there is no such early retirement. But this is not a problem of Russia, right? <...>
The second argument seems to be economic - a decline in labor productivity in Russia. It is clear that the number of workers will decrease due to the failure of the 1990s in the demographics, therefore it is necessary to fill the labor market with people, women aged 55 to 63 years old and men from 60 to 65 years old.
However, first, the decline in productivity is due to the state of funds and technologies, and not to the state of labor. If everyone wants a technological breakthrough, then it is he who should and can increase productivity, taking into account the reduction in labor, so that the total output per employed and in general per person living in the country will increase. <...>
It is possible that we will get additional unemployed or poor people, since at these ages learning is difficult, plus people's illnesses - all this limits the use of such a labor resource at specified ages. <...> The assurances that the situation will change in 10 years will still not remove the problems of health and labor intensity at such ages,as well as the propensity to learn, not to mention the need for such labor in the labor market, with the owners of industries. <...>
By the way, those who were born in 1972-1975 will retire in the 2030s. It was they who suffered the most in the 1990s, their formation and development was curtailed, their fates acquired unprecedented complexity for obvious reasons. And now they are responsible for the 1990s, and even longer duration of work? <...>
Load capital - force to introduce technologies, fork over the Russian pension system, and not withdraw capital. And it will not be necessary to raise the age. <...>
I would especially like to note that to introduce this supposed reform, the idea is being carried out that it will be possible to increase the pension for those who enter it. Thus, the heat of indignations, popular unrest, social protests is lost, people seem to be “bought” by the fact that there will be indexation. Although according to the available documents, indexing pensions is the main task of the government. "
Well, something like this.
The full version of the material with detailed comments of experts can be read here.
Agenda, trends, opinions, exclusive. Informally on the Telegram-channel "Davydov.Indeks".

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